北京银行资产质量稳定，非息增速放缓

图表目录

图 1：累计营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速..........................4

图 2：累计同比业绩拆分（2024Q1~3）................................4

图 3：累计同比业绩拆分（2024H1）...................................5

图 4：单季度营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速........................5

图 5：单季度业绩拆分（2024Q3）.....................................6

图 6：净息差和净利差................................................8

图 7：资本充足率情况...............................................13

图 8：年化 ROE、风险加权资产增速和ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)......................13

图 9：股东数和户均持股数量（万户，万股）...........................14

表 1：关键财务指标概览（单位：百万元）..............................3

表 2：累计业绩同比增速..............................................6

表 3：单季度业绩同比增速............................................6

表 4：累计 ROE 拆分.................................................7

表 5：单季度ROE 拆分................................................7

表 6：净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率................8

表 7：生息资产情况（单位：百万元）..................................9

表 8：计息负债情况（单位：百万元）..................................9

表 9：非息收入、其他综合收益.......................................10

表 10：资产质量（百万元）..........................................10

表 11：贷款情况....................................................11

表 12：存款情况....................................................11

表 13：信用减值损失和拨备余额（百万元）............................12

表 14：手续费结构..................................................12

附：财务预测表（单位：百万元）.....................................15

表 1：关键财务指标概览（单位：百万元）

资料来源： ，

注：不良净生成率 1=(不良贷款增量+本期核销及转出（披露值）)/期初贷款余额；不良净生成率 2=(不良贷款增量+本期核销测算值)/期

初贷款余额；不良核销转出率 1=本期核销及转出（披露值）/期初不良贷款余额；不良核销转出率 2=本期核销测算值/期初不良贷款余额

关键财务指标

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

营业收入同比增速

0.00%-6.92%-1.56%-3.21%0.66%7.85%6.37%4.06%

拨备前利润同比增速

-1.75%-13.26%-6.17%-9.20%-3.06%9.68%5.39%4.30%

归母净利润同比增速

11.40%1.90%4.89%4.50%3.49%4.95%2.39%1.90%

净息差（披露值）

1.76%1.54%1.54%1.47%

净利差（披露值）

1.71%1.54%1.53%1.48%

生息资产收益率（披露值）

3.85%3.67%3.68%3.58%

计息负债成本率（披露值）

2.14%2.13%2.15%2.09%

净息差（测算值）

1.96%1.84%1.76%1.79%1.77%1.69%1.67%1.65%

净利差（测算值）

2.14%2.12%2.02%2.06%2.03%1.98%1.94%1.89%

生息资产收益率（测算值）

4.27%4.27%4.20%4.25%4.23%4.16%4.07%3.97%

计息负债成本率（测算值）

2.13%2.15%2.17%2.20%2.20%2.18%2.13%2.08%

单季度净息差（测算值）

1.90%1.84%1.71%1.79%1.73%1.69%1.67%1.65%

单季度净利差（测算值）

2.14%2.12%1.99%2.05%2.00%1.98%1.95%1.89%

ROA（年化）

0.77%0.87%0.82%0.77%0.72%0.83%0.76%0.71%

ROE（年化）

9.60%12.76%11.58%11.05%9.32%12.40%10.98%10.41%

杠杆率

7.53%7.55%7.30%7.25%7.15%7.42%7.24%7.36%

总资产增速

10.76%11.54%13.50%15.34%10.65%11.20%8.62%9.66%

风险加权资产增速

8.28%9.11%12.80%14.65%11.37%13.25%8.63%9.63%

ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)

6.68%8.88%8.06%7.69%6.51%8.66%9.98%9.46%

ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)-风险加权资产增速

-1.59%-0.23%-4.74%-6.96%-4.86%-4.59%1.35%-0.17%

成本收入比

26.55%27.44%24.89%27.98%28.88%26.41%25.63%27.78%

存贷比

93.94%95.19%95.42%96.28%97.38%97.25%92.54%91.51%

贷款同比增速

7.42%8.57%11.30%13.49%12.14%11.63%9.62%8.89%

存款同比增速

12.83%8.37%11.34%10.55%8.02%9.23%12.93%14.51%

贷款/生息资产

60.32%62.06%61.90%61.82%60.68%62.50%62.94%61.06%

存款/计息负债

64.48%64.98%64.99%64.30%62.56%63.65%67.59%66.93%

贷款较年初增量

124,081101,758180,376195,948218,233104,448152,334154,930

存款较年初增量

221,18379,458156,863156,121156,011110,316272,605304,999

不良贷款率

1.43%1.36%1.34%1.33%1.32%1.31%1.31%1.31%

拨备覆盖率

210.04%217.01%217.65%215.23%216.78%213.13%208.16%209.73%

关注贷款率

1.61%1.50%1.78%1.87%

关注率+不良率

3.04%1.36%2.84%1.33%3.10%1.31%3.18%1.31%

逾期贷款率

2.26%1.67%1.72%1.82%

逾期 90 天以上/不良

78.96%80.24%80.90%86.40%

逾期 1 年以上/损失

315.64%264.56%213.69%165.50%

逾期/不良

158.00%125.20%130.40%139.36%

重组贷款率

0.62%0.94%0.75%0.72%

逾期率+重组率

2.88%2.61%2.47%2.54%

（重组+逾期）/不良

201.05%195.34%187.49%194.17%

不良净新生成率 1（测算值）

0.70%0.61%0.70%0.91%

不良净新生成率 2（测算值）

1.25%7.08%0.95%2.94%0.96%6.87%1.04%2.86%

不良核销转出率 1（测算值）

45.21%41.38%51.63%61.09%

不良核销转出率 2（测算值）

86.33%922.89%67.68%360.99%71.90%948.27%71.00%366.87%

核心一级资本充足率

9.54%9.55%9.19%9.25%9.21%9.11%9.15%9.11%

一级资本充足率

12.86%12.76%12.27%12.28%12.18%11.95%11.99%12.24%

资本充足率

14.04%13.94%13.46%13.46%13.37%13.12%13.11%13.35%

流动性覆盖率

163.74%138.43%129.50%130.36%145.38%120.39%140.80%141.33%

净稳定性资金比例

115.19%114.45%113.70%115.92%

股东数（户）

192,030190,590178,788171,419170,548149,226145,636144,539

图 1：累计营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速

累计营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速

营业收入同比增速拨备前利润同比增速归母净利润同比增速

20.00%

15.00%

10.00%

5.00%

0.00%

4.30%

4.06%

1.90%

-5.00%

-10.00%

-15.00%

资料来源： ，

图 2：累计同比业绩拆分（2024Q1~3）

北京银行2024Q1~3累计业绩驱动拆分

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

生净净

息息手

资差续

产费

规收

模入

其税成拨有净少归

他金本备效利数母

收及收计税润股净

支附入提

加比

率东利

净润

利

润

资料来源： ，

11.4%

1.7%

1.9%

图 3：累计同比业绩拆分（2024H1）

北京银行2024H1累计业绩驱动拆分

10%

9%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

2%

1%

0%

生

息

资

产

规

模

净净其税

息手他金本备效利数母

差续收及

费支附

收加

入

成拨有净少归

收计税润股净

入提率

比

东利

净润

利

润

资料来源： ，

图 4：单季度营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速

单季度营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速

营业收入同比增速拨备前利润同比增速归母净利润同比增速

60.00%

50.00%

40.00%

30.00%

20.00%

10.00%

0.00%

-10.00%

-20.00%

-30.00%

9.4%

2.1%

2.4%

图 5：单季度业绩拆分（2024Q3）

北京银行2024Q3单季度业绩驱动拆分

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

生净净其税成拨有净少归

息息手他金本备效利数母

资差续收及收计税润股净

产费支附入提率东利

规收加比净润

模入利

润

资料来源：Wind，招商证券

表 2：累计业绩同比增速

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

营业收入同比增速

0.00%-6.92%-1.56%-3.21%0.66%7.85%6.37%4.06%

净利息收入同比增速

0.12%-3.37%-3.87%-3.81%-2.15%1.91%3.84%2.69%

非息收入同比增速

-0.40%-16.81%5.53%-1.34%10.41%27.06%13.43%8.27%

净手续费收入同比增速

17.96%-53.06%-41.42%-41.59%-46.90%-16.14%-16.95%-16.74%

其他非息收入同比增速

-12.78%45.69%54.78%33.68%62.65%51.07%25.49%17.78%

营业支出同比增速

-4.02%-15.17%-7.70%-9.22%-1.86%11.68%9.74%5.68%

拨备前利润同比增速

-1.75%-13.26%-6.17%-9.20%-3.06%9.68%5.39%4.30%

利润总额同比增速

7.31%1.26%5.51%4.39%3.69%4.66%2.84%2.12%

净利润同比增速

11.33%2.00%4.80%4.29%3.22%4.60%2.12%1.71%

归母净利润同比增速

11.40%1.90%4.89%4.50%3.49%4.95%2.39%1.90%

资料来源：Wind，招商证券

表 3：单季度业绩同比增速

2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3

营业收入同比增速

-9.74%-6.92%4.23%-6.43%14.01%7.85%4.96%-0.67%

净利息收入同比增速

-5.20%-3.37%-4.39%-3.68%3.04%1.91%5.85%0.51%

非息收入同比增速

-27.33%-16.81%33.53%-15.68%69.46%27.06%2.79%-5.22%

净手续费收入同比增速

-10.10%-53.06%-15.78%-42.10%-70.08%-16.14%-17.94%-16.12%

其他非息收入同比增速

-40.49%45.69%61.31%-0.36%230.39%51.07%8.88%-1.55%

营业支出同比增速

-20.37%-15.17%-0.56%-11.81%21.43%11.68%8.15%-1.57%

拨备前利润同比增速

-13.81%-13.26%1.32%-15.58%22.73%9.68%1.51%1.77%

利润总额同比增速

17.30%1.26%10.89%1.77%0.90%4.66%0.74%0.35%

净利润同比增速

33.89%2.00%8.10%3.08%-0.61%4.60%-0.65%0.73%

归母净利润同比增速

33.54%1.90%8.42%3.59%-0.15%4.95%-0.44%0.73%

11.4%

0.7%0.7%

表 4：累计 ROE 拆分

资料来源： ，

表 5：单季度 ROE 拆分

资料来源： ，

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

营业收入

2.06%1.90%1.90%1.88%1.87%1.85%1.85%1.77%

净利息收入

1.60%1.46%1.40%1.42%1.41%1.34%1.33%1.32%

净手续费收入

0.22%0.16%0.14%0.13%0.11%0.12%0.11%0.10%

其他非息收入

0.24%0.29%0.36%0.33%0.35%0.39%0.41%0.36%

营业支出

1.22%0.91%0.99%1.02%1.08%0.91%0.99%0.98%

税金及附加

0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%

业务及管理费

0.55%0.52%0.47%0.53%0.54%0.49%0.47%0.49%

减值损失0.65%0.36%0.49%0.48%0.52%0.40%0.49%0.47%

营业利润

0.84%1.00%0.91%0.85%0.79%0.94%0.86%0.79%

营业外净收入0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

利润总额0.84%1.00%0.91%0.85%0.79%0.94%0.86%0.79%

所得税

0.06%0.12%0.10%0.08%0.06%0.12%0.10%0.08%

年化 ROA

0.77%0.87%0.81%0.77%0.72%0.83%0.76%0.71%

杠杆率12.4114.5914.2114.4012.9215.0314.4614.69

年化 ROE

9.60%12.76%11.58%11.05%9.32%12.40%10.98%10.41%

2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3

营业收入

1.85%1.90%1.94%1.85%1.90%1.85%1.86%1.67%

净利息收入1.54%1.46%1.37%1.47%1.44%1.34%1.33%1.34%

净手续费收入0.16%0.16%0.13%0.10%0.04%0.12%0.10%0.07%

其他非息收入

0.14%0.29%0.44%0.29%0.42%0.39%0.43%0.26%

营业支出

1.17%0.91%1.09%1.10%1.29%0.91%1.08%0.99%

税金及附加

0.03%0.02%0.03%0.02%0.03%0.02%0.03%0.02%

业务及管理费0.67%0.52%0.43%0.63%0.60%0.49%0.46%0.54%

减值损失0.47%0.36%0.63%0.45%0.65%0.40%0.59%0.43%

营业利润

0.68%1.00%0.85%0.74%0.62%0.94%0.78%0.68%

营业外净收入

0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

利润总额

0.67%1.00%0.84%0.74%0.61%0.94%0.78%0.68%

所得税

0.00%0.12%0.07%0.06%0.01%0.12%0.08%0.05%

年化 ROA

0.68%0.87%0.77%0.68%0.61%0.83%0.70%0.62%

杠杆率12.4114.5914.2114.4012.9215.0314.4614.69

年化 ROE

8.39%12.76%10.96%9.82%7.84%12.40%10.11%9.16%

图 6：净息差和净利差

净息差（披露值）净利差（披露值）

2.20%

2.00%

1.80%

1.60%

1.40%

1.20%

1.00%

资料来源： ，

表 6：净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率

累计（披露值）

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

净息差

1.76%1.54%1.54%1.47%

净利差

1.71%1.54%1.53%1.48%

生息资产收益率

3.85%3.67%3.68%3.58%

计息负债成本率

2.14%2.13%2.15%2.09%

单季度（测算值）

2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q2

2024Q3

净息差

1.90%1.84%1.71%1.79%1.73%1.69%1.67%1.65%

净利差

2.14%2.12%1.99%2.05%2.00%1.98%1.95%1.89%

生息资产收益率

4.27%4.27%4.20%4.24%4.22%4.16%4.00%3.89%

计息负债成本率

2.14%2.15%2.21%2.19%2.22%2.18%2.05%2.00%

生息资产平均收益率

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

发放贷款

4.36%4.21%4.19%4.03%

投资类资产

3.70%3.30%3.31%3.16%

存放央行

1.50%1.50%1.51%1.51%

同业资产

2.35%2.48%2.62%2.80%

计息负债平均付息率

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

存款

2.02%1.96%1.97%1.88%

向央行借款

2.68%2.56%2.54%2.36%

同业负债

2.10%2.33%2.39%2.43%

发行债券

2.63%2.46%2.51%2.50%

资料来源： ，

表 7：生息资产情况（单位：百万元）

余额结构（分母为总资产）

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

贷款

53.05%54.22%54.45%54.28%53.77%54.43%54.94%53.89%

投资类资产

33.27%34.41%33.95%33.98%34.03%33.75%32.33%32.94%

FVTPL

8.49%9.00%8.34%8.62%8.39%9.23%8.73%8.03%

AC

19.93%19.88%19.36%19.25%18.32%17.48%16.63%16.36%

FVOCI

4.85%5.52%6.25%6.10%7.33%7.04%6.98%8.55%

存放央行

4.83%4.54%4.29%4.58%4.42%3.92%4.21%4.02%

同业资产

7.62%5.45%5.77%5.72%6.88%6.24%6.53%7.66%

同比增速

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

总生息资产

7.87%9.25%11.98%14.88%11.48%10.84%7.82%10.26%

贷款

7.42%8.57%11.30%13.49%12.14%11.63%9.62%8.89%

投资类资产

14.10%20.03%19.62%19.35%13.18%9.08%3.45%6.29%

FVTPL

51.33%42.01%29.54%23.34%9.32%14.03%13.70%2.12%

AC

3.11%8.64%6.16%7.36%1.70%-2.22%-6.72%-6.82%

FVOCI

14.94%37.19%68.56%72.19%67.09%41.65%21.25%53.55%

存放央行

0.51%-5.95%-3.71%6.00%1.15%-3.98%6.63%-3.86%

同业资产

24.52%6.41%7.12%15.81%0.02%27.18%23.06%46.78%

单季增量

2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3

总生息资产

173,21080,317134,64029,45697,59269,99652,676110,401

贷款

41,019101,75878,61815,57222,285104,44847,8862,596

投资类资产

81,65177,74028,28414,66127,88038,545-38,57750,658

FVTPL

30,89627,517-12,41313,929-2,22444,926-15,154-20,829

AC

16,52821,1207,0163,781-20,454-5,778-24,7992,793

FVOCI

34,22729,10333,681-3,04950,558-6031,37668,694

存放央行

4,859-4,670-3,17612,507-2,785-12,87113,474-4,307

同业资产

76,566-66,97818,42367747,935-15,10814,78850,678

资料来源： ，

备注：FVTPL 为以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融资产；AC 为以摊余成本计量的金融资产或者债权投资；FVOCI 为以公允

价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益的金融资产或者（其他债权投资+其他权益工具投资）。

表 8：计息负债情况（单位：百万元）

余额结构

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

存款

57.41%57.80%57.86%57.21%56.05%56.78%60.16%59.74%

向央行借款

3.70%3.95%3.83%3.86%4.74%4.56%4.38%3.85%

同业负债

15.99%15.38%14.92%15.56%16.30%16.24%12.94%13.38%

发行债券

11.93%11.82%12.43%12.34%12.51%11.62%11.53%12.29%

同比增速

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

总计息负债

11.61%12.60%14.47%16.29%11.35%11.51%8.58%10.01%

存款

12.83%8.37%11.34%10.55%8.02%9.23%12.93%14.51%

向央行借款

-1.69%3.20%8.09%20.59%41.60%28.40%24.21%9.34%

同业负债

16.00%36.29%30.25%32.14%12.81%17.43%-5.75%-5.68%

发行债券

5.22%12.06%14.89%26.17%16.03%9.31%0.70%9.15%

单季增量

2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3

总计息负债

206,27899,232118,83633,48990,831115,42537,66483,235

存款

44,46379,45877,405-742-110110,316162,28932,394

向央行借款

7,74313,0085532,93335,682150-5,118-17,462

同业负债

109,293-3,1673,24829,62439,71021,274-121,77628,322

发行债券

44,7799,93337,6301,67415,549-16,3152,26939,981

资料来源： ，

表 9：非息收入、其他综合收益

累计占比（/营收）

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

净手续费及佣金收入

10.66%8.43%7.51%6.75%5.62%6.55%5.86%5.40%

投资收益

12.76%14.34%16.08%16.54%17.04%19.58%19.61%19.10%

公允价值变动损益

-1.38%0.10%2.54%1.01%0.93%1.46%2.37%0.42%

汇兑净损益

0.10%0.38%0.05%0.05%0.10%-0.06%0.14%0.45%

其他业务收入

0.23%0.33%0.22%0.17%0.83%0.27%0.17%0.14%

其他综合收益

0.39%5.56%7.14%3.85%4.47%25.89%18.34%12.55%

单季度占比（/营收）

2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

净手续费及佣金收入

1.99%8.43%3.37%1.71%0.59%6.55%2.60%1.38%

投资收益

3.11%14.34%9.04%5.74%4.70%19.58%9.87%5.63%

公允价值变动损益

-1.51%0.10%2.49%-0.70%0.18%1.46%1.65%-1.21%

汇兑净损益

0.07%0.38%-0.13%0.01%0.06%-0.06%0.17%0.36%

其他业务收入

0.06%0.33%0.06%0.02%0.71%0.27%0.04%0.02%

其他综合收益

-2.26%5.56%4.41%-0.95%1.61%25.89%5.45%-0.04%

资料来源：Wind，招商证券

表 10：资产质量（百万元）

资产质量2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3

不良贷款率

拨备覆盖率

1.43%1.36%1.34%1.33%1.32%1.31%1.31%1.31%

210.04%217.01%217.65%215.23%216.78%213.13%208.16%209.73%

拨贷比

3.00%2.96%2.91%2.86%2.86%2.79%2.72%2.74%

不良贷款余额

25,71226,41026,57128,362

关注类贷款余额

28,97029,59535,84740,457

逾期贷款余额

40,62533,06634,64839,526

逾期 90 天以上贷款余额

20,30221,19121,49724,504

重组贷款余额

11,06818,52515,17015,544

关注贷款率

1.61%1.50%1.78%1.87%

关注率+不良率

3.04%1.36%2.84%1.33%3.10%1.31%3.18%1.31%

逾期贷款率

2.26%1.67%1.72%1.82%

逾期 90 天以上/不良

78.96%80.24%80.90%86.40%

逾期 1 年以上/损失

315.64%264.56%213.69%165.50%

逾期/不良

158.00%125.20%130.40%139.36%

重组贷款率

0.62%0.94%0.75%0.72%

（重组+逾期）/贷款

2.88%2.61%2.47%2.54%

（重组+逾期）/不良

201.05%195.34%187.49%194.17%

不良净新生成率 1（测算值）

0.70%0.61%0.70%0.91%

不良净新生成率 2（测算值）

1.25%7.08%0.95%2.94%0.96%6.87%1.04%2.86%

不良核销转出率 1（测算值）

45.21%41.38%51.63%61.09%

不良核销转出率 2（测算值）

86.33%922.89%67.68%360.99%71.90%948.27%71.00%366.87%

资料来源：Wind，招商证券

表 11：贷款情况

余额增速

2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

个人贷款

14.16%16.86%15.91%10.18%8.69%11.43%9.80%6.64%

表 12：存款情况

公司存款

余额结构

2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2023A2024H1

70.09%69.66%67.61%67.21%63.55%64.26%62.84%61.68%

公司定期

29.96%32.07%32.44%33.13%30.57%31.87%35.36%35.12%

公司活期

40.13%37.59%35.17%34.08%32.99%32.38%27.49%26.56%

个人存款

23.97%24.74%26.21%26.43%28.19%28.16%30.01%30.10%

个人定期

16.62%17.06%17.59%17.82%19.56%20.15%22.01%22.72%

个人活期

7.35%7.68%8.62%8.61%8.63%8.01%8.00%7.39%

余额增速

2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

公司存款

4.97%3.25%0.11%4.71%5.83%6.57%6.97%8.49%

公司定期

14.85%-0.23%12.38%12.10%6.09%7.25%25.14%24.53%

公司活期

-1.36%6.41%-9.05%-1.59%5.60%5.90%-9.86%-7.29%

个人存款

10.77%8.39%13.49%15.91%21.07%18.79%15.17%20.82%

个人定期

7.22%9.09%9.86%13.36%25.20%26.03%21.72%27.43%

个人活期

19.75%6.86%21.68%21.56%12.64%3.80%0.31%4.20%

资料来源： ，

余额结构

2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

个人贷款

32.40%33.01%35.18%33.86%35.60%33.90%34.86%32.98%

住房按揭贷款

20.90%20.69%20.90%19.39%18.87%16.95%16.17%14.85%

消费贷款

3.81%4.16%5.62%5.66%7.47%8.16%9.98%9.52%

经营性贷款

7.06%7.46%7.97%8.24%8.72%8.26%8.03%7.86%

信用卡贷款

0.62%0.69%0.69%0.56%0.55%0.53%0.68%0.75%

票据贴现

5.69%5.22%8.53%10.12%8.61%7.63%7.13%7.11%

公司贷款

61.91%61.77%56.29%56.02%55.79%58.47%58.01%59.91%

制造业

7.40%6.88%6.56%7.31%7.43%8.65%8.64%9.64%

批发和零售业

5.91%5.93%5.28%5.21%5.37%5.61%5.83%5.79%

传统基建

14.06%14.93%14.83%15.07%15.53%15.41%14.94%14.42%

房地产业

9.80%9.13%7.28%6.04%6.10%6.09%5.93%5.62%

租赁和商务服务业

11.58%11.64%11.06%10.73%10.02%10.62%10.90%11.26%

建筑业

4.26%4.12%3.23%3.33%3.22%3.79%3.65%3.98%

住房按揭贷款

13.86%6.69%0.64%-3.02%-2.72%-3.88%-3.97%

消费贷款

39.05%57.50%46.17%42.76%60.38%49.85%27.92%

经营性贷款

4.13%20.53%18.72%17.44%11.51%3.27%4.35%

信用卡贷款

24.34%18.74%-12.71%-15.31%5.10%38.62%53.64%

票据贴现

35.17%3.76%60.05%108.06%8.43%-16.03%-7.18%2.15%

公司贷款

3.76%4.38%-2.97%-2.58%6.46%16.15%16.62%12.32%

制造业

-4.67%-6.35%-5.48%14.05%21.69%31.73%30.39%22.11%

批发和零售业

-9.12%-0.23%-4.55%-5.64%9.11%19.90%21.86%13.14%

传统基建

12.12%17.02%12.56%8.37%12.49%13.84%7.88%2.53%

房地产业

7.19%-3.11%-20.66%-28.95%-10.06%12.32%8.99%1.17%

租赁和商务服务业

4.48%2.96%1.94%-0.93%-2.72%10.13%21.99%16.21%

建筑业

0.93%1.62%-18.91%-13.09%6.85%26.52%27.27%15.08%

资料来源：Wind，招商证券

表 13：信用减值损失和拨备余额（百万元）

信用减值损失

2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

总资产

24,88611,78823,60711,08720,9108,63218,4439,504

贷款

19,9397,48814,1297,99913,3737,02413,8078,857

金融投资

2,7781,9179,4132,5067,9331,7004,549316

其他

2,1692,38365582-396-9287331

信用减值损失/资产期初余额

2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

总资产

0.91%0.41%0.81%0.36%0.68%0.25%0.54%0.25%

贷款

1.38%0.48%0.90%0.48%0.80%0.39%0.77%0.44%

金融投资

0.28%0.19%0.95%0.25%0.80%0.15%0.40%0.02%

其他

0.69%0.69%0.02%0.15%-0.10%-0.02%0.02%0.07%

拨备余额

2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

总资产

71,59076,01683,28089,42787,48792,27392,56792,595

贷款

53,01754,68650,70756,78054,00557,48257,60159,038

金融投资

16,64518,55529,75029,81030,93832,26232,31230,902

其他

1,9282,7752,8232,8372,5442,5292,6542,655

拨备余额/资产余额

2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

总资产

2.47%2.48%2.72%2.79%2.58%2.54%2.47%2.35%

贷款

3.38%3.31%3.03%3.20%3.00%2.91%2.86%2.72%

金融投资

1.69%1.85%3.01%2.89%2.74%2.62%2.53%2.42%

其他

0.56%0.69%0.71%0.72%0.55%0.60%0.58%0.53%

资料来源：Wind，招商证券

表 14：手续费结构

手续费收入增速2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1

手续费收入

-5.72%-32.73%-16.49%29.13%19.04%-37.44%-37.64%-9.51%

代理业务

3.25%-8.07%24.67%45.77%33.85%-55.34%-54.94%-16.77%

支付结算业务

13.22%-32.45%-26.82%17.45%26.68%-11.54%-13.88%7.91%

咨询顾问业务

-28.07%-93.57%-93.43%318.00%544.29%10.53%-14.63%10.39%

担保承诺业务

-17.67%-17.96%-21.56%-54.53%-56.06%-29.05%-15.95%5.26%

银行卡业务

-61.60%-53.63%8.44%3.48%-0.82%10.92%-7.44%-3.03%

其他-2.23%-70.05%-58.39%43.08%-78.51%46.95%455.10%-25.61%

手续费支出

19.08%-69.86%-63.03%12.65%31.41%24.28%58.36%44.90%

零售AUM 同比增速

8.58%8.06%14.15%15.37%10.23%5.98%6.31%13.93%

资料来源：Wind，招商证券

图 7：资本充足率情况

核心一级资本充足率一级资本充足率资本充足率

16.00%

14.00%

13.35%

12.00%

12.24%

10.00%

9.11%

8.00%

6.00%

4.00%

2.00%

0.00%

资料来源： ，

图 8：年化 ROE、风险加权资产增速和 ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)

ROE（年化）风险加权资产增速ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)

16.00%

14.00%

12.00%

10.00%

8.00%

10.41%

9.63%

9.46%

6.00%

4.00%

2.00%

0.00%

资料来源： ，

图 9：股东数和户均持股数量（万户，万股）

股东数（万户）户均持股数量（流通股，万股，右轴）

25.0116.00

14.00

20.01

12.00

15.01

10.00

10.01

8.00

6.00

4.00

5.01

2.00

0.01-

资料来源： ，

附：财务预测表（单位：百万元）

2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E2022A2023A2024E2025E2026E

价值评估（倍） 利润表

P/E5.55.34.74.64.451,45850,35052,01854,62157,743

净利息收入

P/B0.510.470.440.410.38利息收入112,449120,500124,187131,536139,343

P/PPOP2.462.532.452.362.2560,99170,15072,16876,91681,600

利息支出

每股指标净手续费收入

7,0663,7523,5273,8093,923

EPS1.101.141.191.211.257,75212,60913,23912,97513,364

净其他非息收

BVPS10.8711.7412.7913.7014.6466,27666,71168,78571,40475,030

营业收入

PPOPPS2.272.202.272.362.4839,33238,59939,70841,81944,515

营业支出

DPS0.310.320.340.340.35783850860893938

税金及附加

股息支付率28.24%28.10%28.10%28.10%28.10%业务及管理费17,59919,26919,81020,56421,609

股息收益率5.57%5.75%6.02%6.13%6.33%营业利润

26,94428,11229,07629,58530,515

驱动性因素

营业外净收入

75-95-95-95-95

贷款增速拨备前利润

7.42%12.14%9.50%9.30%9.00%47,92946,46047,98349,81552,352

存款增速资产减值损失

12.83%8.02%15.00%11.00%10.00%20,91018,44319,00220,32521,931

生息资产增速利润总额

10.39%11.02%10.75%8.27%7.61%27,01928,01728,98129,49030,420

计息负债增速所得税

11.61%11.35%10.80%8.52%7.97%2,0892,2852,8982,9493,042

平均贷款收益率4.36%4.19%3.96%3.82%3.75%净利润24,93025,73226,08326,54127,378

平均生息资产收益归母净利润24,76025,62425,99126,45027,287

3.53%3.41%3.17%3.07%3.01%

平均存款付息率资产负债表

2.02%1.97%1.84%1.80%1.77%

平均计息负债付息贷款总额

2.13%2.20%2.04%1.98%1.94%1,797,3192,015,5522,207,0292,412,2832,629,389

净息差(NIM)-测算贷款减值准备

1.61%1.43%1.33%1.27%1.25%54,00557,60160,63965,42272,523

净利差(NIS)-测算贷款净额

1.39%1.21%1.13%1.09%1.07%1,749,1071,964,7912,146,3902,346,8612,556,866

净手续费收入增速投资类资产

17.96% -46.90%-6.00%8.00%3.00%1,127,2411,275,8061,403,3871,515,6581,591,440

净非息收入/营收存放央行

22.36%24.53%24.38%23.51%23.04%163,645165,521181,214187,738206,511

成本收入比同业资产

26.55%28.88%28.80%28.80%28.80%257,993258,050322,563338,691365,786

拨备支出/平均贷款24.05%24.52%25.51%26.16%25.29%其他资产456,351477,622373,505404,299435,589

实际所得税率7.73%8.16% 10.00% 10.00% 10.00%生息资产

3,346,1983,714,9294,114,1924,454,3694,793,126

业绩年增速率资产合计

3,387,9523,748,6794,196,6854,542,6814,894,255

净利息收入存款

0.1%-2.2%3.3%5.0%5.7%1,945,0202,101,0312,416,1862,681,9662,950,163

净手续费收入向央行借款

18.0%-46.9%-6.0%8.0%3.0%125,429177,605155,175155,175155,175

净其他非息增速同业负债

-12.8%62.7%5.0%-2.0%3.0%541,742611,157629,492654,671680,858

营业收入发行债券

0.0%0.7%3.1%3.8%5.1%404,053468,839520,411546,432573,753

营业支出计息负债

-4.0%-1.9%2.9%5.3%6.4%3,016,2443,358,6323,721,2644,038,2444,359,949

拨备前利润负债合计

-1.8%-3.1%3.3%3.8%5.1%3,077,3353,420,4473,836,3544,163,1384,494,793

利润总额股东权益合计

7.3%3.7%3.4%1.8%3.2%310,617328,232360,331379,542399,461

净利润11.3%3.2%1.4%1.8%3.2%加权风险资产 2,352,106 2,619,504 2,855,259

3,112,233 3,392,334

归母净利润11.4%3.5%1.4%1.8%3.2%资产质量

盈利能力

信用成本率

1.20%0.97%0.90%0.88%0.87%

ROAA0.77%0.72%0.66%0.61%0.58%1.43%1.32%1.30%1.28%1.25%

不良贷款率

ROAE9.60%9.32%9.72%9.17%8.85%不良净生成率0.70%0.70%0.90%0.80%0.70%

RORWA1.10%1.04%0.95%0.89%0.84%210%217%211%212%220%

拨备覆盖率

资本状况拨贷比

3.00%2.86%2.75%2.71%2.76%

杠杆率10.9111.4211.6511.9712.25同业资产/总资7.62%6.88%7.69%7.46%7.47%

数据来源： ，

资本充足率流动性

14.04% 13.37%13.36%13.30%13.19%

一级资本充足率12.86% 12.18%12.25%12.26%12.21%92.41%95.93%91.34%89.94%89.13%

存贷比

核心一级资本充足9.54%9.21%9.10%8.97%8.81%贷款/总资产53.05%53.77%52.59%53.10%53.72%

风险加权系数投资类资产/总

69.43% 69.88%68.04%68.51%69.31%33.27%34.03%33.44%33.36%32.52%