招商银行资产质量稳健,等待复苏回归
图表目录
图 1:累计营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速..........................5
图 2:累计同比业绩拆分(2024Q1~3)................................5
图 3:累计同比业绩拆分(2024H1)...................................6
图 4:单季度营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速........................6
图 5:单季度业绩拆分(2024Q3).....................................7
图 6:净息差和净利差................................................9
图 7:资本充足率情况...............................................15
图 8:年化 ROE、风险加权资产增速和ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)......................15
图 9:股东数和户均持股数量(万户,万股)...........................16
表 1:关键财务指标概览(单位:百万元)..............................4
表 2:累计业绩同比增速..............................................7
表 3:单季度业绩同比增速............................................7
表 4:累计 ROE 拆分.................................................8
表 5:单季度ROE 拆分................................................8
表 6:净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率................9
表 7:生息资产情况(单位:百万元).................................10
表 8:计息负债情况(单位:百万元).................................10
表 9:非息收入、其他综合收益.......................................11
表 10:资产质量....................................................11
表 11:贷款情况....................................................12
表 12:存款情况....................................................12
表 13:不良贷款情况(百万元)......................................13
表 14:信用减值损失和拨备余额(百万元)............................14
表 15:手续费结构..................................................14
附:财务预测表.....................................................17
表 1:关键财务指标概览(单位:百万元)
生息资产收益率(披露值)
3.89%3.86%3.83%3.79%3.76%3.65%3.60%3.56%
计息负债成本率(披露值)1.61%1.68%1.71%1.72%1.73%1.75%1.72%1.69%
净息差(测算值)
2.52%2.42%2.35%2.34%2.29%2.09%2.11%2.09%
净利差(测算值)
2.48%2.41%2.32%2.32%2.27%2.08%2.11%2.08%
生息资产收益率(测算值)4.08%4.08%4.03%4.05%4.00%3.78%3.79%3.74%
计息负债成本率(测算值)1.59%1.67%1.71%1.74%1.73%1.70%1.69%1.67%
单季度净息差(测算值)
2.55%2.42%2.29%2.25%2.19%2.09%2.06%2.06%
单季度净利差(测算值)
2.53%2.41%2.28%2.23%2.18%2.08%2.06%2.05%
ROA(年化)
1.44%1.52%1.46%1.47%1.40%1.36%1.33%1.34%
ROE(年化)
17.06%18.43%17.55%17.38%16.22%16.08%15.44%15.38%
杠杆率
7.95%7.96%7.70%7.93%8.26%8.11%7.88%8.27%
总资产增速
9.62%11.61%10.44%9.90%8.77%9.63%7.77%9.25%
风险加权资产增速5.00%7.20%7.19%7.87%13.12%8.08%6.50%2.76%
ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)11.42%12.34%11.75%11.64%10.54%10.45%10.03%9.99%
ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)-风险加权资产增速
6.43%5.14%4.56%3.76%-2.58%2.36%3.53%7.23%
成本收入比
32.88%27.59%29.07%30.09%32.96%28.35%29.74%29.58%
存贷比80.30%81.52%79.14%80.89%79.81%80.76%77.89%77.40%
贷款同比增速
8.64%10.04%7.14%7.69%7.56%7.57%6.17%4.70%
存款同比增速
18.88%16.53%14.31%12.83%8.56%8.95%8.23%9.51%
贷款/生息资产
63.69%64.87%63.38%64.92%63.50%63.43%62.90%62.12%
存款/计息负债
85.39%84.77%85.94%86.03%85.07%84.48%86.53%86.48%
贷款较年初增量481,425284,516303,980404,087457,406306,962238,939249,886
存款较年初增量
1,205,425242,333507,693467,133649,919293,404524,626583,108
不良贷款率
0.96%0.95%0.95%0.96%0.95%0.92%0.94%0.94%
拨备覆盖率
450.79%448.32%447.63%445.86%437.70%436.82%434.42%432.15%
关注贷款率1.21%1.12%1.02%1.01%1.10%1.14%1.24%1.30%
关注率+不良率
2.17%2.07%1.97%1.97%2.05%2.06%2.18%2.24%
逾期贷款率
1.29%1.23%1.25%1.25%1.13%1.31%1.42%1.36%
逾期 90 天以上/不良
70.82%76.92%77.56%78.74%69.90%78.74%78.43%79.37%
逾期 1 年以上/损失125.33%150.43%93.83%94.76%
逾期/不良
134.96%129.13%131.46%130.23%119.47%142.58%150.69%144.67%
重组贷款率
0.20%0.22%0.20%0.21%
逾期率+重组率
1.49%1.23%1.48%1.25%1.33%1.31%1.63%1.36%
(重组+逾期)/不良155.78%129.13%154.76%130.23%140.59%142.58%173.02%144.67%
不良净新生成率(披露值)
1.15%1.09%1.04%1.03%1.03%1.03%1.02%1.02%
不良净新生成率 1(测算值)
0.76%1.01%0.79%0.43%0.79%0.96%0.78%0.47%
不良净新生成率 2(测算值)
1.07%1.19%1.06%0.91%0.69%0.88%0.85%0.75%
不良核销转出率 1(测算值)76.85%94.22%77.20%38.80%82.62%99.31%79.81%47.65%
不良核销转出率 2(测算值)
113.08%114.62%107.37%92.02%71.38%90.95%86.74%78.17%
核心一级资本充足率
13.68%13.41%13.09%13.37%13.73%14.07%13.86%14.73%
一级资本充足率15.75%15.34%14.99%15.23%16.01%16.30%16.09%16.99%
资本充足率17.77%17.39%17.09%17.38%17.88%18.20%17.95%18.67%
流动性覆盖率
164.92%168.17%172.58%159.65%159.82%160.96%171.71%170.64%
净稳定性资金比例
131.83%130.13%130.72%133.22%132.85%
股东数(户)541,363595,628607,030564,564647,881568,738537,564494,536
资料来源: ,
注:不良净生成率 1=(不良贷款增量+本期核销及转出(披露值))/期初贷款余额;不良净生成率 2=(不良贷款增量+本期核销测算值)/期
初贷款余额;不良核销转出率 1=本期核销及转出(披露值)/期初不良贷款余额;不良核销转出率 2=本期核销测算值/期初不良贷款余额
关键财务指标
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
营业收入同比增速
4.08%-1.47%-0.35%-1.72%-1.64%-4.65%-3.09%-2.91%
拨备前利润同比增速
3.80%-3.93%-2.40%-2.77%-2.06%-6.08%-4.52%-2.66%
归母净利润同比增速
15.08%7.82%9.12%6.52%6.22%-1.96%-1.33%-0.62%
净息差(披露值)
2.40%2.29%2.23%2.19%2.15%2.02%2.00%1.99%
净利差(披露值)
2.28%2.18%2.12%2.07%2.03%1.90%1.88%1.87%
8.4%
(0.8%)
(0.6%)
图 1:累计营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速
累计营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速
营业收入同比增速拨备前利润同比增速归母净利润同比增速
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
-0.62%
0.00%
-5.00%
-2.91%
-2.66%
-10.00%
资料来源: ,
图 2:累计同比业绩拆分(2024Q1~3)
2024Q1~3累计业绩驱动拆分
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
生
息
资
产
规
模
净净其税成拨有净少归
息手他金本备效利数母
差续收及收
费支附入
收加比
入
计税润股净
提率东利
净润
利
润
资料来源: ,
图 3:累计同比业绩拆分(2024H1)
2024H1累计业绩驱动拆分
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
生净净
息息手
资差续
产费
规收
模入
其税成
他金本
收及收
支附入
加比
拨有净少归
备效利数母
计税润股净
提率东利
净润
利
润
资料来源: ,
图 4:单季度营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速
单季度营收、PPOP、归母净利润同比增速
营业收入同比增速拨备前利润同比增速归母净利润同比增速
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
1.64%
0.79%
-2.51%
-10.00%
-20.00%
6.7%
(1.4%)
(1.3%)
图 5:单季度业绩拆分(2024Q3)
2024Q3单季度业绩驱动拆分
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
生净净其税成拨有净少归
息息手他金本备效利数母
资差续收及收计税润股净
产费支附入提率东利
规收加比净润
模入利
润
资料来源:Wind,招商证券
表 2:累计业绩同比增速
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
营业收入同比增速
4.08%-1.47%-0.35%-1.72%-1.64%-4.65%-3.09%-2.91%
净利息收入同比增速7.02%1.74%1.21%0.10%-1.63%-6.15%-4.17%-3.07%
非息收入同比增速-0.62%-6.13%-2.71%-4.59%-1.65%-2.30%-1.39%-2.63%
净手续费收入同比增速-0.18%-12.60%-11.82%-11.52%-10.78%-19.44%-18.61%-16.90%
其他非息收入同比增速-1.87%14.91%24.34%14.90%25.01%40.06%34.84%28.23%
营业支出同比增速
-1.97%-8.16%-8.25%-7.69%-9.56%-5.74%-4.91%-5.21%
拨备前利润同比增速
3.80%-3.93%-2.40%-2.77%-2.06%-6.08%-4.52%-2.66%
利润总额同比增速11.43%5.67%8.68%4.48%6.97%-3.61%-1.37%-0.82%
净利润同比增速15.28%8.03%9.19%6.47%6.25%-2.00%-1.38%-0.81%
归母净利润同比增速
15.08%7.82%9.12%6.52%6.22%-1.96%-1.33%-0.62%
资料来源:Wind,招商证券
表 3:单季度业绩同比增速
2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3
营业收入同比增速
0.13%-1.47%0.83%-4.58%-1.38%-4.65%-1.48%-2.51%
净利息收入同比增速
5.30%1.74%0.67%-2.11%-6.63%-6.15%-2.12%-0.83%
非息收入同比增速-10.23%-6.13%1.07%-8.86%10.97%-2.30%-0.46%-5.66%
净手续费收入同比增速-1.02%-12.60%-10.92%-10.79%-7.78%-19.44%-17.66%-12.85%
其他非息收入同比增速-32.20%14.91%33.42%-4.06%76.25%40.06%30.51%11.03%
营业支出同比增速
-8.75%-8.16%-8.33%-6.35%-15.29%-5.74%-4.08%-5.92%
拨备前利润同比增速
2.40%-3.93%-0.71%-3.61%0.94%-6.08%-2.84%1.64%
利润总额同比增速
13.36%5.67%12.09%-3.19%15.96%-3.61%1.02%0.30%
净利润同比增速18.27%8.03%10.44%1.46%5.50%-2.00%-0.74%0.33%
归母净利润同比增速
18.18%7.82%10.52%1.70%5.22%-1.96%-0.67%0.79%
8.4%
0.3%
0.8%
表 4:累计 ROE 拆分
资料来源: ,
表 5:单季度 ROE 拆分
资料来源: ,
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
营业收入3.56%3.51%3.42%3.34%3.20%3.07%3.06%2.97%
净利息收入
2.25%2.15%2.09%2.08%2.03%1.84%1.85%1.85%
净手续费收入
0.97%0.97%0.90%0.86%0.79%0.72%0.68%0.65%
其他非息收入
0.33%0.39%0.43%0.40%0.38%0.50%0.53%0.47%
营业支出1.85%1.69%1.68%1.60%1.54%1.46%1.47%1.39%
税金及附加
0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%
业务及管理费
1.17%0.97%0.99%1.00%1.06%0.87%0.91%0.88%
减值损失
0.59%0.64%0.60%0.51%0.39%0.51%0.48%0.43%
营业利润1.70%1.82%1.74%1.73%1.67%1.60%1.59%1.58%
营业外净收入
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
利润总额
1.70%1.82%1.74%1.73%1.67%1.60%1.59%1.58%
所得税
0.27%0.30%0.28%0.26%0.27%0.24%0.25%0.24%
年化 ROA1.44%1.52%1.46%1.47%1.40%1.36%1.33%1.34%
杠杆率
11.8712.1311.9811.8011.6011.7911.5711.47
年化 ROE17.06%18.43%17.55%17.38%16.22%16.08%15.44%15.38%
2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3
营业收入3.30%3.51%3.37%3.15%2.98%3.07%3.06%2.81%
净利息收入
2.32%2.15%2.05%2.05%1.98%1.84%1.86%1.86%
净手续费收入
0.76%0.97%0.84%0.77%0.65%0.72%0.64%0.61%
其他非息收入
0.22%0.39%0.47%0.33%0.35%0.50%0.56%0.34%
营业支出1.82%1.69%1.68%1.44%1.41%1.46%1.49%1.24%
税金及附加
0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%0.03%
业务及管理费
1.45%0.97%1.03%1.02%1.26%0.87%0.95%0.82%
减值损失
0.28%0.64%0.57%0.33%0.06%0.51%0.45%0.33%
营业利润1.48%1.82%1.69%1.71%1.57%1.60%1.57%1.57%
营业外净收入
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
利润总额
1.47%1.82%1.69%1.70%1.57%1.60%1.57%1.57%
所得税
0.18%0.30%0.26%0.22%0.32%0.24%0.27%0.20%
年化 ROA1.29%1.52%1.43%1.48%1.25%1.36%1.31%1.36%
杠杆率
11.8712.1311.9811.8011.6011.7911.5711.47
年化 ROE15.34%18.43%17.09%17.48%14.48%16.08%15.13%15.64%
图 6:净息差和净利差
净息差(披露值)净利差(披露值)
3.00%
2.80%
2.60%
2.40%
2.20%
2.00%
1.80%
1.60%
1.99%
1.87%
1.40%
1.20%
1.00%
资料来源: ,
表 6:净息差、净利差、生息资产收益率、计息负债成本率
累计(披露值)
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
净息差
2.40%2.29%2.23%2.19%2.15%2.02%2.00%1.99%
净利差
2.28%2.18%2.12%2.07%2.03%1.90%1.88%1.87%
生息资产收益率
3.89%3.86%3.83%3.79%3.76%3.65%3.60%3.56%
计息负债成本率
1.61%1.68%1.71%1.72%1.73%1.75%1.72%1.69%
单季度(测算值)
2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3
净息差
2.55%2.42%2.29%2.25%2.19%2.09%2.06%2.06%
净利差
2.53%2.41%2.28%2.23%2.18%2.08%2.06%2.05%
生息资产收益率
4.16%4.08%4.01%3.96%3.95%3.78%3.69%3.65%
计息负债成本率
1.64%1.67%1.73%1.73%1.77%1.70%1.64%1.60%
生息资产平均收益率
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
发放贷款
4.54%4.41%4.36%4.32%4.26%4.07%4.02%3.98%
投资类资产
3.24%3.27%3.25%3.22%3.22%3.17%3.14%3.11%
存放央行
1.52%1.65%1.66%1.68%1.70%1.70%1.68%1.69%
同业资产
2.09%2.75%2.80%2.67%2.80%3.09%2.99%2.87%
计息负债平均付息率
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
存款
1.52%1.59%1.61%1.62%1.62%1.63%1.60%1.58%
向央行借款
2.31%2.12%2.15%2.15%2.15%2.18%2.18%2.17%
同业负债
1.64%1.97%2.07%2.04%2.09%2.26%2.21%2.15%
发行债券
2.99%3.07%3.09%3.18%3.24%3.19%3.02%3.03%
资料来源: ,
表 7:生息资产情况(单位:百万元)
余额结构(分母为总资产)
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
贷款
59.69%60.29%59.18%60.51%59.02%59.16%58.30%57.99%
投资类资产
27.35%28.28%27.90%28.90%28.96%27.78%28.77%28.73%
FVTPL4.18%4.95%4.54%4.59%4.77%4.55%5.00%4.31%
AC15.34%15.34%15.38%15.89%15.86%15.10%15.33%15.84%
FVOCI7.83%7.99%7.97%8.42%8.33%8.13%8.44%8.59%
存放央行
5.95%5.69%5.50%5.62%6.19%7.06%5.18%5.40%
同业资产
6.23%4.97%6.63%4.06%5.08%5.30%6.92%7.01%
同比增速
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总生息资产
10.08%11.61%10.76%10.27%7.88%10.01%6.98%9.43%
贷款
8.64%10.04%7.14%7.69%7.56%7.57%6.17%4.70%
投资类资产
27.36%25.42%19.34%20.67%15.19%7.71%11.16%8.61%
FVTPL21.64%17.59%15.12%3.65%24.25%0.77%18.76%2.58%
AC31.17%30.80%22.70%23.64%12.44%7.95%7.39%8.89%
FVOCI23.44%20.85%15.64%26.23%15.75%11.56%14.09%11.37%
存放央行
6.31%-2.84%0.98%0.25%13.23%36.09%1.47%4.92%
同业资产
-20.99%-11.07%20.96%-8.47%-11.22%17.11%12.51%88.70%
单季增量
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总生息资产
484,208266,354259,802-84,216306,672495,827-18,409153,100
贷款
57,085284,51619,464100,10753,319306,962-68,02310,947
投资类资产
217,297199,04024,18887,549110,4546,942129,41218,634
FVTPL-48,78597,192-32,9431,76336,666-1,45954,544-77,143
AC184,07556,07040,20243,79353,502-9,43034,28072,303
FVOCI82,00745,77816,92941,99320,28617,83140,58823,474
存放央行
4,549-5,387-6,7859,11482,833130,538-213,82029,951
同业资产
158,689-109,784189,861-278,839127,87350,394189,60816,047
资料来源: ,
备注:FVTPL 为以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融资产;AC 为以摊余成本计量的金融资产或者债权投资;FVOCI 为以公允
价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益的金融资产或者(其他债权投资+其他权益工具投资)。
表 8:计息负债情况(单位:百万元)
余额结构
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
存款
74.87%74.54%75.40%75.53%74.72%74.08%75.73%75.71%
向央行借款
1.28%1.86%1.47%2.10%3.43%2.21%1.95%2.25%
同业负债
9.33%9.00%8.39%7.91%8.08%8.70%7.45%7.55%
发行债券
2.21%2.53%2.48%2.25%1.60%2.70%2.39%2.03%
同比增速
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总计息负债
10.12%12.73%10.77%10.92%8.96%9.33%7.49%8.93%
存款
18.88%16.53%14.31%12.83%8.56%8.95%8.23%9.51%
向央行借款
-18.90%15.21%10.81%51.98%191.82%30.31%42.49%17.01%
同业负债
-12.55%2.05%-4.33%-8.18%-5.80%5.94%-4.25%4.30%
发行债券
-49.89%-29.75%-21.39%1.85%-21.11%17.36%3.95%-1.64%
单季增量
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总计息负债
445,848349,922183,715-57,304320,350415,64727,55972,814
存款
449,095242,333265,360-40,560182,786293,404231,22258,482
向央行借款
-17,87465,377-36,94066,165154,274-124,351-28,87437,114
同业负债
26,595561-45,052-57,25146,873111,612-139,55617,331
发行债券
-11,96841,651347-25,658-63,583134,982-35,233-40,113
资料来源: ,
表 9:非息收入、其他综合收益
累计占比(/营收)
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
净手续费及佣金收入
27.34%27.67%26.39%25.75%24.80%23.38%22.16%22.04%
投资收益
5.96%7.25%6.95%6.69%6.54%11.00%11.27%9.76%
公允价值变动损益
-0.78%-0.10%1.02%0.51%0.54%0.49%1.32%1.23%
汇兑净损益
1.04%0.86%1.39%1.26%1.22%1.23%1.13%0.78%
其他业务收入
3.14%3.19%3.18%3.43%3.60%3.73%3.72%3.95%
其他综合收益
4.05%11.83%8.77%4.85%4.92%24.51%15.88%12.41%
单季度占比(/营收)
2022Q42023Q12023Q22023Q32023Q42024Q12024Q22024Q3
净手续费及佣金收入
5.37%27.67%12.33%7.66%5.04%23.38%10.48%6.88%
投资收益
1.35%7.25%3.27%1.92%1.41%11.00%5.78%2.04%
公允价值变动损益
-0.75%-0.10%1.07%-0.18%0.15%0.49%1.08%0.32%
汇兑净损益
0.13%0.86%0.95%0.31%0.25%1.23%0.51%0.01%
其他业务收入
0.82%3.19%1.56%1.25%0.96%3.73%1.86%1.40%
其他综合收益
-0.65%11.83%2.77%-1.16%1.20%24.51%3.64%1.54%
资料来源: ,
表 10:资产质量(百万元)
拨贷比
4.32%4.27%4.27%4.27%4.14%4.01%4.08%4.06%
不良贷款余额58,00460,30260,64161,79461,57962,63063,42763,557
关注类贷款余额73,47070,74865,13265,19671,32878,01783,33788,131
逾期贷款余额
78,28577,87079,72180,47773,56889,30095,57791,950
逾期 90 天以上贷款余额
41,07846,38647,03548,65743,04249,31549,74450,442
重组贷款余额
12,07614,13013,00714,166
关注贷款率
1.21%1.12%1.02%1.01%1.10%1.14%1.24%1.30%
关注率+不良率
2.17%2.07%1.97%1.97%2.05%2.06%2.18%2.24%
逾期贷款率
1.29%1.23%1.25%1.25%1.13%1.31%1.42%1.36%
逾期 90 天以上/不良
70.82%76.92%77.56%78.74%69.90%78.74%78.43%79.37%
逾期 1 年以上/损失
125.33%150.43%93.83%94.76%
逾期/不良
134.96%129.13%131.46%130.23%119.47%142.58%150.69%144.67%
重组贷款率0.20%0.22%0.20%0.21%
(重组+逾期)/贷款1.49%1.23%1.48%1.25%1.33%1.31%1.63%1.36%
(重组+逾期)/不良155.78%129.13%154.76%130.23%140.59%142.58%173.02%144.67%
不良净新生成率(披露值)
1.15%1.09%1.04%1.03%1.03%1.03%1.02%1.02%
不良净新生成率 1(测算值)
0.76%1.01%0.79%0.43%0.79%0.96%0.78%0.47%
不良净新生成率 2(测算值)
1.07%1.19%1.06%0.91%0.69%0.88%0.85%0.75%
不良核销转出率 1(测算值)76.85%94.22%77.20%38.80%82.62%99.31%79.81%47.65%
不良核销转出率 2(测算值)113.08%114.62%107.37%92.02%71.38%90.95%86.74%78.17%
资料来源:Wind,招商证券
资产质量2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
不良贷款率
拨备覆盖率
0.96%0.95%0.95%0.96%0.95%0.92%0.94%0.94%
450.79%448.32%447.63%445.86%437.70%436.82%434.42%432.15%
表 11:贷款情况
住房按揭贷款
22.96%21.54%21.69%21.05%21.29%19.98%20.38%20.29%
消费贷款
3.34%3.91%4.62%4.63%5.20%5.60%5.79%
经营性贷款
10.43%10.71%11.19%11.39%11.54%11.63%11.97%12.03%
信用卡贷款14.62%13.92%14.25%14.25%14.38%13.45%13.63%13.71%
票据贴现
8.49%8.61%7.07%8.10%7.24%7.68%6.44%6.08%
公司贷款
39.26%40.29%40.55%39.41%39.94%40.96%41.08%41.04%
制造业
7.70%8.03%8.65%8.08%8.87%8.82%9.03%9.05%
批发和零售业
2.99%3.03%2.91%2.74%3.04%3.10%3.09%3.05%
传统基建
12.73%10.56%12.91%10.20%12.73%10.60%13.00%10.86%
房地产业6.21%5.29%5.60%4.64%5.02%4.56%5.04%4.35%
租赁和商务服务业2.67%2.44%2.94%2.58%2.96%2.55%2.97%2.55%
建筑业
1.75%1.80%1.85%1.76%1.71%1.98%2.00%1.89%
余额增速
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
个人贷款
5.82%7.01%7.74%7.11%8.73%8.12%6.36%5.47%
住房按揭贷款
1.08%-0.67%-0.68%-0.27%-0.23%-0.23%0.89%
消费贷款44.66%49.11%43.26%31.28%
经营性贷款12.31%14.83%16.58%19.06%16.83%13.57%10.63%
信用卡贷款5.25%7.06%6.01%5.81%3.93%1.50%0.78%
票据贴现
19.19%10.03%-16.90%-4.07%-8.35%-4.03%-3.17%-21.44%
公司贷款
10.45%14.13%11.98%11.31%9.44%9.36%7.57%9.05%
制造业
39.69%50.18%43.79%23.90%18.21%10.85%17.27%
批发和零售业22.70%25.91%10.79%9.42%10.20%12.79%16.60%
传统基建9.16%15.23%11.81%7.61%7.91%6.91%11.45%
房地产业-6.40%-8.20%-10.44%-13.12%-7.27%-4.45%-1.79%
租赁和商务服务业
-7.44%-4.84%3.15%19.12%12.64%7.07%3.28%
建筑业
-12.54%-8.57%-6.89%5.13%17.81%14.34%12.35%
资料来源: ,
表 12:存款情况
余额结构
公司存款63.95%63.22%58.81%58.73%57.82%57.15%56.08%55.95%
2021A2022H12022A2023H12023Q1-32023A2024H12024Q1-3
公司定期
22.15%23.37%22.15%23.89%25.07%24.72%25.12%27.65%
公司活期
41.80%39.85%36.66%34.84%32.76%32.43%30.96%28.30%
个人存款
36.05%36.78%41.19%41.27%42.18%42.85%43.92%44.05%
个人定期
11.51%13.05%14.87%17.58%19.46%20.42%22.92%23.65%
个人活期
24.54%23.73%26.32%23.70%22.71%22.43%21.00%20.40%
余额增速
2021A2022H12022A2023H12023Q1-32023A2024H12024Q1-3
公司存款
12.88%15.99%9.18%6.00%5.16%5.17%3.02%5.88%
公司定期
9.04%18.98%18.69%16.62%13.18%20.79%13.44%20.71%
公司活期
15.03%14.31%4.14%-0.23%-0.26%-4.27%-4.12%-5.44%
个人存款
12.57%20.68%35.66%28.06%24.57%12.59%14.79%14.28%
个人定期
15.53%46.47%53.48%53.74%56.92%48.58%40.64%32.95%
个人活期
11.23%10.03%27.31%13.94%5.89%-7.75%-4.38%-1.75%
资料来源: ,
余额结构2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
个人贷款
52.25%51.10%52.39%52.49%52.82%51.35%52.48%52.88%
表 13:不良贷款情况(百万元)
不良率
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
个人贷款
0.89%0.84%0.89%0.90%0.94%
个人住房贷款
0.35%0.35%0.37%0.40%
个人消费贷款
1.09%1.04%
经营性贷款
0.64%0.62%0.56%0.55%0.61%0.60%0.63%0.65%
信用卡应收账款
1.77%1.68%1.75%1.78%
票据贴现
对公贷款
1.26%1.25%1.27%1.26%1.19%1.09%1.13%1.05%
制造业
1.03%0.93%0.70%0.69%0.53%0.47%0.48%0.46%
批发和零售业
1.02%0.89%0.73%0.84%0.67%0.66%0.68%0.68%
交通运输、仓储和邮政业
0.19%0.15%0.20%0.34%0.34%0.29%0.27%0.29%
电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业
0.22%0.20%0.21%0.23%0.16%0.17%0.14%0.20%
水利、环境和公共设施管理业
0.15%0.27%0.18%0.23%0.23%0.22%0.88%0.36%
房地产业
4.08%4.55%5.52%5.31%5.26%4.82%5.12%4.80%
租赁和商务服务业
1.10%1.10%0.82%0.89%0.76%0.85%0.76%0.50%
建筑业
0.41%0.40%0.35%0.40%0.30%0.60%0.67%1.13%
资料来源:Wind,招商证券
不良贷款额
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
个人贷款
28,04329,01927,97527,24230,58726,48232,04225,559
个人住房贷款
4,9044,8655,1225,521
个人消费贷款
3,2853,930
经营性贷款
4,0314,2333,9774,0264,5924,7725,0625,265
信用卡应收账款
15,65015,20116,38316,394
票据贴现
对公贷款
29,96128,29332,66628,44030,99227,17631,38526,368
制造业
4,7814,7423,8663,6073,0632,8132,9202,841
批发和零售业
1,8361,7071,3481,4851,3301,4031,4141,398
交通运输、仓储和邮政业
9486281,0131,4641,7391,3081,4001,274
电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业
468360520452443408417511
水利、环境和公共设施管理业
1001561178210177372121
房地产业
15,34815,24419,64415,91117,18314,99817,39614,131
租赁和商务服务业
1,7841,7031,5341,4801,4701,4751,514858
建筑业
4354534114503338028991,442
表 14:信用减值损失和拨备余额(百万元)
信用减值损失
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总资产
57,56616,42131,20939,89541,46914,26726,93636,357
贷款
45,15716,55027,29141,46646,63513,27125,43336,270
金融投资
3,8791,413-218-1,058
其他
8,5302,505-4,9482,561
信用减值损失/资产期初余额
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总资产
0.62%0.16%0.31%0.39%0.41%0.13%0.24%0.33%
贷款
0.81%0.27%0.45%0.69%0.77%0.20%0.39%0.56%
金融投资
0.18%0.05%-0.01%-0.03%
其他
0.57%0.19%-0.38%0.19%
拨备余额
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总资产
324,463334,422326,319331,535
贷款
261,476271,447269,534275,539
金融投资
49,98848,71346,20245,260
其他
12,99914,26210,58310,736
拨备余额/资产余额
2022A2023Q12023H12023Q1-32023A2024Q12024H12024Q1-3
总资产
3.20%3.11%2.96%2.86%
贷款
4.32%4.27%4.14%4.08%
金融投资
1.80%1.63%1.45%1.36%
其他
0.99%1.03%0.80%0.72%
资料来源: ,
表 15:手续费结构
代理业务103.08%
90.05%29.00%-8.13%-13.78%-10.21%-7.89%-32.51%
理财业务
托管业务-52.70%
-43.73%46.16%23.00%12.03%-5.16%-7.92%-6.27%
支付结算业务10.09%
14.38%9.89%7.45%8.26%-0.23%2.93%0.74%
咨询顾问业务
担保承诺业务-1.89%
5.42%2.10%-8.75%-8.99%-12.66%-13.14%-19.87%
银行卡业务
-0.23%-0.89%13.94%10.44%-6.12%-8.76%-14.10%
交易业务
其他110.26%
303.92%13.08%0.14%13.51%-37.54%-37.16%-16.41%
手续费支出-4.71%
12.24%9.35%12.21%15.58%0.90%-4.08%-0.54%
零售AUM 同比增速19.32%
20.84%20.33%17.35%12.46%9.58%10.09%10.62%
资料来源: ,
手续费收入增速2020A2021H12021A2022H12022A2023H12023A2024H1
手续费收入
9.66%22.79%18.04%2.87%1.03%-10.89%-10.19%-17.11%
图 7:资本充足率情况
核心一级资本充足率一级资本充足率资本充足率
20.00%
18.00%
16.00%
14.00%
12.00%
10.00%
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
2.00%
0.00%
资料来源: ,
图 8:年化 ROE、风险加权资产增速和 ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)
ROE(年化)风险加权资产增速ROE(年化)*(1-分红率)
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
15.38%
10.00%
9.99%
5.00%
2.76%
0.00%
资料来源: ,
18.67%
16.99%
14.73%
图 9:股东数和户均持股数量(万户,万股)
股东数(万户)户均持股数量(流通股,万股,右轴)
70.0110.00
60.01
50.01
40.01
30.01
20.01
10.01
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.01-
资料来源: ,
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